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AWIS Weather Services Blog | Cold Season Forecasting for the Southwest United States

Cold Season Forecasting for the Southwest United States

April 5, 2023

The first week of April brought troubling cold temperatures to parts of the Southwest United States. For one of our Ag Clients in that region, it was about to hit a little too close to home. They reached out via email and text with many questions from "how bad will it be" to "what can we do?" Our Ag Meteorologist with over 40 years of experience both in the office and in the field was on it. He spent a few sleepless nights watching model numbers come in, receiving client provided weather variables, and scouring terrain maps of the region. What resulted was simply an email. An email that provided every piece of information that AWIS could put together for our growers. An email that answered questions that had yet to even be asked. This is one small example of how AWIS keeps growers informed, prepared, and at ease.

**Significant Freeze Threat Tonight**
**Freeze Threat Lingers Thursday Morning**
Warmer Easter Weekend/Next Week

Information for tonight and into Wednesday Morning
Dew Points - Dew Points will be dropping from 20s early this morning into the single digits this afternoon, to near zero by sunset, holding near zero if not below at times through Wednesday morning.

Winds - Winds will be increasing to 15-25 MPH and gusty from the NW by late morning, into the early evening hours, lowering to 10-15 MPH by midnight with likely periods of 5-10 towards or just after sunrise Wednesday, with some potential of brief periods near 5 MPH or just under.

Wind Machines - Not the best conditions for wind machines to be highly effective, but still some benefit.

Temperature - Expect mostly weak to perhaps moderate low level inversions during lightest wind periods, providing in the ranges of 2-5 degrees warmth. Pending local wind variations, expect temperatures to fall to near freezing by Midnight, and to critical ranges of 26 around 3-4 AM local time, likely rising to freezing and above by 7AM. Most minimums in the low or low-mid 20s ranges, perhaps coldest pockets a tad lower pending local wind variations and timing of.

Temperature Durations (Unchanged from Yesterday's forecast) -
Less than or equal to 32 degrees will last 8-12 hours.
Less than or equal to 28 degrees will last 4-8 hours.
Less than or equal to 26 degrees will ast 3-6 hours.

Wet-Bulb Temperature (For Irrigation) -
While knowing most using under-canopy sprinkler irrigation will likely turn them on before dark, here are the estimated timing needs: Given such low dew points, irrigation likely would need to be turned on near or just after dark, around 7PM (~35 degrees wet-bulb temp), and stay on until ice melts and wet bulb rises above 32, estimated around 9-10 AM Wednesday Morning.

Reiterated Points on Using Under Canopy Irrigation:

  • Water is turned on well before forecast wet bulb temperatures are forecast to drop to freezing, usually 34-37 degrees, even warmer to be totally safe (and if do not want to do it after dark)
  • Water is continually run until any ice begins to melt the following morning (Sprinkler heads and water lines kept unfrozen)
  • Issues with potential limb breakage from ice formation is minimal
Late Wednesday and Thursday Morning Foreacast:
Not quite as cold, but still a threat of critical temperatures. While dew points rise a little, still on the very low side, so expect another extended period of time for using under canopy irrigation. Low level inversion strengths may provide a little more benefit Thursday morning, during lightest winds, given anticipated lighter winds and a little higher dew point temperatures, mostly in the 3-6 degree warmth ranges.
Updates on Wednesday.

Note from the forecaster:
Best wishes that perhaps winds stay up a little more, dew points do not fall as much, and temperature durations at critical levels are not as extended as what now appears to be the potential. If can get through these couple mornings with somewhat minimal damage, then looking up as additional cold threats ahead are minimal as we get towards the middle of April.

If you are in need of Ag Forecasts, Agricultural Preperation for Weather, or simply have questions about an impending storm system that might bring below freezing temperatures or severe weather to your location, please Reach out to us today. We'd love to create a weather solution for you and help you protect your investments. Think it's too expensive? The service that brought the information above was around $700 per month. We've stuck close to that number since the mid 90s and plan to be close to that for the forseeable future. As the American Farmer succeeds, so does America. This is our small part in that victory.

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